- Thanks to the immigrants, the German population has slightly increased, but at the same time the average age.
- Everyone else is older than 45, every fifth person older than 66 years of age.
- Less and less capable are required to supply more and more elderly people, as in the upcoming years the generation of baby booms is pulling.
The number of residents in Germany continued to grow in 2018. With about 227,000 more people than the previous year, the increase was only 0.3 percent. Enlargement caused only immigration, says Sabine Bechtold from the Federal Bureau of Statistics in Wiesbaden on a presentation of a recent "population projection" of demographic development.
It is true that, according to Bechtoldu, the birth rate is rising from 2012. But more and more people are still dying than dying. After all, more people are more migrained than people. In the future, experts also assume that the population will grow slightly until at least 2024. However, no later than 2040, the trend is likely to reverse.
At the same time, and this is the main message of the expert, the number of working people will fall sharply in the coming years, because it is much older than the termination of offspring. According to Bechtoldu, immigration will only have a relatively small impact over the next 15 to 20 years.
530 000 migrants per year to compensate for the workforce
"The aging of the society is already well advanced," notes Bechtold. In 2018, 51.8 million people aged between 20 and 66 were still living in Germany. But "every other person in Germany is now older than 45, and every fifth person older than 66 years". And for 30 years, one in ten people will be at least 80 years old. Especially in the coming years, much of the high birth rate of a so-called baby boom generation will leave the world of work. The "supply burden" of the working-age population will significantly increase. While 100 employees in 2018 have already faced 60 potential users, by 2038 they will be 80 and could rise to 83-88 by 2060.
The number of employees will be reduced by 4.4 to 6 million by 2035. By 2060 it is estimated that only 40 to 46 million people will be in working age. If those who retreated at least partially have not been replaced by immigrants, the number of people who are employed will be reduced by as much as nine million by 2035. However, according to the Federal Bureau of Statistics, "losses" could be fully absorbed only if 530,000 people were employed by this year, which is more than in the period 2016 to 2018. come.
"Demographic changes in the old population have not stopped by immigration, mostly alleviated," Bechtold says. According to Olgi Pötzsch, this is also a consequence of the fact that Eastern and Southern Europe also experience strong aging. According to experts from the Federal Office, most immigrants are still coming from Germany to Germany, especially from Romania, Poland, Bulgaria and the Western Balkans. But while crises across the globe lead to people seeking protection in the future, the demand for young workers in Eastern and Southern Europe is growing, so immigration of people at a working age will probably slow down considerably.
83 young and old on 100 service providers
The birth rate will hardly stand up to this development. Although the number of children has risen again between 2014 and 2018 as a result of multiple births and immigration, it will continue until the early 2030s. For now experts only expect stabilization. As a result of such an event development, the ratio of young people under 20 years of age and working age up to 66 years is likely to change considerably compared to older people (at least 67).
For example, in 2060, with a moderate birth, immigration and expected life expectancy, the Federal Office estimates that a total of 83 young or old people will reach 100 working people.
Significant differences are seen by experts between old and new countries. Until 2060 it is expected that the number of inhabitants in the West will be reduced by four percent and in the east by 18 percent – at least with the modest development of fertility, expected life expectancy and net immigration. On the other hand, in urban areas, an increase of ten percent is expected. Everywhere, however, the number of people who can work decreases during that period.
"Official forecasts of the population do not claim to predict the future," the Federal Office specialists point out in their report. "They help to understand how the population and population structure will develop under certain demographic conditions." This is a new policy.
(To illustrate the development of the age pyramid in Germany, the Federal Bureau of Statistics has published it here in the Infographics.)