In the next 20 years, the current age structure leads to a decline in the number of working-age population and the increase in the number of elderly people. This is the central result of the 14th coordinated projection of the population presented by the Federal Bureau of Statistics (Destatis) at the press conference on 27 June 2019 in Berlin. The new forecast shows that, despite a relatively broad range of assumptions about the future development of demographic factors such as fertility, expected life expectancy and net migration, these processes can not be stopped.
In 2018, there were 51.8 million people in Germany between the ages of 20 and 66. By 2035, the working-age population will be reduced by about 4-6 million to 45.8 to 47.4 million. After that, it will first stabilize, then reduce to between 40 and 46 million by 2060, depending on the level of net migration. Without net migration, the working population would have about 9 million people by 2035.
The older population will continue to grow
The number of people over the age of 67 increased by 54% between 1990 and 2018, from 10.4 to 15.9 million. It will increase by an additional 5 to 6 million to at least 21 million by 2039, and then remain relatively stable by 2060.
The number of people over the age of 80 will increase from 5.4 million in 2018 to 6.2 million by 2022, and then stay at that level until the early 2030s. Over the next 20 years, however, it will grow steadily and grow in the year 2050 to 8.9 to 10.5 million, depending on the expected development of the expected life expectancy.
Population growth by at least 2024 falls by 2040 at the latest
Population as a whole, unlike the working-age population and the elderly, has a wider range of possible developments. Depending on the assumed fertility, the expected life expectancy and net immigration, the number of inhabitants will increase from 83 million in 2018 by at least 2024 and by 2040 at the latest. It is expected that in 2060 there will be between 74 and 83 million.
Regional differences will continue to increase by 2060
With the modest development of fertility, expected life expectancy and net immigration, the population will be reduced by 4% in West Germany and 18% in East Germany by 2060. By contrast, cities will grow by 10%. The population of the working-age population aged 20 to 66, unlike the total population, is declining in all provinces. Between 2018 and 2060, under the same conditions, the number of persons employed in the West German territories will be reduced by 16%, in East German territorial states by 30%, and in cities by 4%.
Long-term population projections are not predictions. 14. The coordinated projection of the population is based on three assumptions about the birth rate, the expected life expectancy and the level of external migration. The core of the overall accounting system consists of They outline the range of possible developments and throw light on the influence of fertility, life expectancy and migration to the development of the population.
Results for 2018 are based on estimates. (Press Release 27.06.2019) (28.06.2019 God)