With a good 83 million people, Germany has more people than ever before – at the same time the population is old despite the average number of young immigrants.
The Federal Bureau of Statistics comes to these conclusions in its estimates and forecasts presented in Berlin and Wiesbaden. Last year, the population grew by 227,000 or 0.3 percent to exactly 83.0192 million people at the end of the year. The average age of people in Germany in the year 2018 at the age of 44 was five years higher than in 1990.
The reason for the population increase is that in 2018, according to preliminary results, 386,000 people more than emigrated, and at the same time the number of deaths exceeded the number of deaths by 167,000. However, growth was lower than in the previous years: in 2017 it amounted to 271,000, compared to 346,000 in the previous year. The share of foreigners grew from 11.7 to 12.2 percent. By the end of 2018, 72.9 million Germans and 10.1 million foreign nationals (plus 4.2%) lived in Germany.
The numbers continue to show the gradient east-west. With the exception of Saarland, the population grew in all Western federal states, in the new federal states without Berlin, however, Brandenburg was just a plus.
Statistical experts believe this trend will continue. It is expected that the population will "significantly decrease in eastern Germany in the future, while stable or only slightly decreasing in the territories of Western Germany and growing in cities-states."
In total, experts from the Federal Bureau of Statistics calculated that the number of inhabitants in Germany would grow at least by 2024, but at the latest after 2040 it may be reduced again. With a moderate birth rate and expected life expectancy, the peak in 2024 would be 83.7 million.
Despite the unusually strong immigration of young people over the last few years, the Federal Bureau of Statistics sees little chance in its forecasts for stopping the aging of the population. Even today, every other person in Germany is older than 45, and one in five is older than 66 years.
Statistical experts assume that "even birth increases and constantly high immigration only slow down aging and can not prevent it". In 30 years, one in ten will be at least 80 years in Germany.
Above all, the so-called. The baby boomer generation contributes to this development, according to the Federal Office. Between 1955 and 1970 many were born in Germany who are now approaching retirement. In the future, this should affect the labor market: in 2018 51.8 million people in working age between 20 and 66 years were in Germany. Until 2035, a decrease in the number of working-age population is expected to be around 4 to 6 million to 45.8 to 47.4 million. Statistical experts point out that without immigration by 2035 there would be around 9 million less working age.
Long-term forecasts of the Federal Bureau of Statistics are not predictions. They only show how the population and its structure will change under certain conditions. Statistics speak of "if-then" statements. For their calculations, use observations and assumptions about birth rate, expected life expectancy and migration. (AP)