FrankfurtWith the emergence of digital technologies in the coming years, the healthcare industry will be structurally changing. Because the costs will be massively changed.
While diagnostics, prevention and digital health become more and more important in healthcare, medicine and medical care are relatively reduced. This is shown in the "Future of Health" study, developed by PwC's Strategic & Strategic Counseling. As part of the study, 120 pharmaceutical managers were interviewed about their expectations for the future.
According to respondents, the global health care market will continue to grow from $ 10.6 trillion in 2018 to $ 11.6 trillion in 2030. However, more people will need access to medicine, while per capita health spending will be reduced. Based on this, net operating margins in the pharmaceutical industry could be under pressure.
"In our research, health care managers expect unsafe times for their current business model. Traditional pharmaceutical companies or they have to become much more effective in maintaining their margins, or investing in growth areas such as diagnostics, prevention and digital healthcare solutions," he says Thomas Solbach, healthcare expert and partner of strategy &.
Over the next few years, surveyed pharmaceutical executives expect a massive increase in expenditures compared to 2018, particularly in the areas of diagnostics, prevention and digital health. The share of the three areas will increase from seven to 23 percent by 2030, which is more than tripled to $ 2.7 trillion in absolute terms.
By contrast, the share of medical care (clinics, doctors) will be reduced from the current 70 percent in 2018 to 54 percent. Drug consumption will remain stable at 17 percent, according to pharmaceutical analysts, which means a modest growth of $ 1.8 trillion to $ 1.9 trillion.
All in all, pharmaceutical managers expect only a moderate increase in health spending by 2030, with an increase of ten percent. In the opinion of the author of the study, this is partly a consequence of price pressure and discussion of excessive drug prices in the United States.
Technological companies enter the market
However, much higher growth rates are expected for the healthcare market than several other market experts, including experts from the Washington Institute of Measurement and Evaluation of Health. By 2030, health spending will increase by 42 percent to $ 15 trillion. In this scenario, the changes in diagnosis, prevention and digital health expected by pharmaceutical journals would be even greater in absolute terms, more than fourfold to $ 3.5 trillion.
According to the Strategy and Strategy study, there will be very high growth in health spending for the next few years, especially in India and China. In China, for example, it is expected that the budget will be more than doubled to less than $ 3.4 trillion. In large European and US countries, growth is considerably lower at rates ranging from twelve to 20 percent.
Health spending in Germany is projected to increase from $ 492 billion to $ 575 billion (16 percent more). And here it is expected that the areas of prevention and digital health services will grow the fastest, while spending on medicines will be slightly reduced, and the health care budget will be significantly reduced.
In the opinion of the Solberg & Partner Strategy, the question is for pharmaceutical companies about the sustainability of their business model. There are two main trends for it: "Highly innovative medicines are still needed for serious and non-curable diseases. On the other hand, in terms of sustainability, prevention and treatment of widespread diseases and their treatment through cheap generics are gaining importance," he says the biggest pressure will come from pharmaceutical companies, which are in the middle of the market with low-differentiated drugs, Solbach continues.
Promote the changes in the healthcare market are the technology companies that are increasingly pushing the market. According to Analysis and Strategy, the number of partnerships and acquisitions of large players, such as the Tencent alphabet, has increased in the last five years.
"If I can build platforms and provide patients with the right application, pharmaceutical companies will be difficult to follow," he said.
In his view, Pharma's core competencies will continue to be sought in the future. "Pharma has a lot of medical knowledge, knows how to act on markets and has access to decision-makers. In that sense, pharmaceutical companies will continue to be part of drug business in the future," says Solbach.
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